24% Growth from 2009 to 2010

Hispanic College Enrollment

 Spikes, Narrowing Gaps with

 Other Groups

by Richard Fry

I. OVERVIEW

Driven by a single-year surge of 24% in Hispanic enrollment, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds attending college in the United States hit an all-time high of 12.2 million in October 2010, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of recently released data from the U.S. Census Bureau.¹

College-age Hispanics accounted for 1.8 million, or 15%, of the overall enrollment of 12.2 million young adults in two- or four-year colleges in 2010—setting records both for their number and share of young college students.²

From 2009 to 2010, the number of Hispanic young adults enrolled in college grew by 349,000, compared with an increase of 88,000 young blacks and 43,000 young Asian-Americans and a decrease of 320,000 young whites.³

As a result of these shifts, young Hispanics for the first time outnumbered young blacks on campus, even though black college enrollment has also grown steadily for decades and it, too, has surged in recent years. In 2010, 38% of all 18- to 24-year-old blacks were enrolled in college, up from 13% in 1967 and 32% in 2008.

Despite the rapid growth in the number of young Hispanics enrolled in college, Hispanics are not the largest minority group on the nation’s four-year college campuses. Young black students continued to outnumber young Hispanic students by a dwindling margin at four-year colleges and universities.

The Hispanic enrollment increase has been even more dramatic than the black enrollment increase because it has been spurred by a mixture of population growth and educational strides. High levels of immigration and high birth rates have made Hispanics the nation’s biggest minority group, comprising 16% of the U.S. population as of 2010. In 1972, just 5% of the nation’s 18- to 24-year-olds were Hispanic. By 2010, that share rose to 19%.

However, population growth accounts for only a small share of the 24% Hispanic college enrollment spike from 2009 to 2010. During that same period, the total population of 18- to 24-year-old Hispanics grew by 7%.

Rising educational attainment is the more dominant driver of these enrollment trends, over the long term as well as in recent years. The share of young Hispanics enrolled in college rose from 13% in 1972 to 27% in 2009 to 32% in 2010. Although the college enrollment rate of young Hispanics is at a record (32%), black (38%), Asian (62%) and white (43%) young adults continue to be more likely than young Hispanics to be enrolled in college.

Hispanic educational attainment rose sharply from 2009 to 2010: The share of Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds who have completed high school increased to 73% in 2010 from 70% in 2009, and the share of young Hispanic high school graduates who are attending college increased to 44% in 2010 from 39% in 2009.

Much of this growth in college enrollment among young Hispanics has been at community colleges. Of all young Hispanics who were attending college last October, some 46% were at a two-year college and 54% were at a four-year college. By contrast, among young white college students, 73% were enrolled in a four-year college, as were 78% of young Asian college students and 63% of young black college students.

The 320,000 student decline in young white enrollment since 2009 is a 4% decline and the largest decline in percentage terms since at least 1993 (when this historical series begins). The decline partly reflects that the size of the white 18- to 24-year-old population peaked in 2008.

The Impact of a Sluggish Economy

College enrollments have been rising steadily for decades, but the pace of growth accelerated when the Great Recession began in 2007. Historically high levels of unemployment, especially for young adults, appear to have served as a stimulant to college enrollment (Fry, 2009).

The recession was officially over by mid-2009, but the economy has continued to struggle to generate new jobs and college enrollments have continued to set records. However, these macroeconomic conditions cannot fully explain why Hispanic enrollments grew so much more from 2009 to 2010 than did the enrollments of other racial and economic groups. For that, the demographic and educational attainment trends cited above would seem to be more determinative.

Enrollment Versus Completion

Although Hispanic youths have narrowed the gap in college enrollment, Hispanic young adults continue to be the least educated major racial or ethnic group in terms of completion of a bachelor’s degree. In 2010, only 13% of Hispanic 25- to 29-year-olds had completed at least a bachelor’s degree (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011a). In comparison, more than half (53%) of non-Hispanic Asian young adults have at least a bachelor’s degree, and nearly 39% of white young adults completed a four-year degree. Among non-Hispanic black 25- to 29-year-olds, 19% have at least a bachelor’s degree. The low college completion of Hispanic young adults partly reflects the lower schooling levels of Hispanic immigrants. Among native-born Hispanic 25- to 29-year-olds, 20% had completed a bachelor’s degree.

Measuring College Enrollments

In analyzing trends in college enrollments by race and ethnicity, this report focuses on the enrollments of 18- to 24-year-olds, the traditional age of college students.

However, many older adults also attend college. In 2010, 18- to 24-years-olds accounted for 60% of the entire college population in the U.S. and 71% of the full-time college population.

As shown in Figure 3, the long-term trends for enrollments of college students of all ages and ages 18 to 24 have followed a similar trajectory. Both groups set records for enrollments in 2010.

1. The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report. ↩
2. College enrollment refers to persons enrolled in a two-year college or a four-year college or university and includes both undergraduate and graduate students. ↩
3. Unless otherwise noted, reference to blacks and Asians include both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic components of the black and Asian populations, respectively. The CPS altered its racial identification question in 2003 to allow respondents to identify themselves as being of more than one race. From 2003 onward, references to whites and blacks refer to persons self-identifying as white alone and black alone, respectively. From 2003 onward, “Asian” refers to persons reporting their racial origin as Asian alone. Before 2003, Asian refers to those identifying themselves as “Asian or Pacific Islanders.” ↩

II. SURGING HISPANIC ENROLLMENT BOOSTS YOUNG COLLEGE ENROLLMENT TO A RECORD HIGH

In October 2010, college enrollment reached 20.3 million students, up from the prior record of 19.8 million in October 2009. Among the traditional college-age population, 18- to 24-year-olds, college enrollment also reached its highest level on record at 12.2 million, up from the prior record of 12.1 million in 2009.

Among 18- to 24-year-olds, the increase in college enrollment was entirely accounted for by the increase in the enrollment of young Hispanics. Since October 2009, young Hispanic enrollment increased by nearly 350,000 students, a 24% increase. As discussed below, the Latino enrollment increase cannot be entirely accounted for by population increase. The Hispanic 18- to 24-year-old population in toto increased by only 7% from 2009 to 2010.

Other young minority populations also reached record levels of college enrollment in 2010, but the increases over 2009 were more modest than the Hispanic increase. Young black college enrollment increased by 88,000 students (5%). Young Asian college enrollment increased by 43,000 students since 2009 (6%).

In contrast, young non-Hispanic white college enrollment decreased. In October 2009, 18- to 24-year-old non-Hispanic white college enrollment peaked at nearly 8.0 million students. In October 2010, young non-Hispanic white college enrollment was about 7.7 million students. In 2010, young non-Hispanic white college students were only 63% of all 18- to 24-year-old college students. This is the lowest non-Hispanic white share dating back to 1993, the earliest year for which the Census Bureau publishes historical statistics on this population.

Among 18- to 24-year-olds, surging Latino enrollment has resulted in Latinos becoming the largest minority group among young college students in 2010. In October 2010 there were 1.8 million Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college, surpassing the 1.7 million black college students in that age group. However, Hispanics were not the largest minority population at four-year colleges and universities.⁴ At two-year colleges, Hispanic enrollment (0.83 million) was about 200,000 students above black enrollment (0.63 million).

Hispanics becoming the nation’s largest minority among young college students was foreshadowed by high school graduation statistics. In the 2007-08 school year, the number of Hispanic public high school graduates (449,000) surpassed the number of non-Hispanic black public high school graduates (432,000) (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011b). Projections of high school graduates by race and ethnicity indicate that by 2021-22 there will be twice as many Hispanic high school graduates as non-Hispanic black high school graduates (Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education, 2008). Chapter 2 shows that the growing number of Hispanic high school graduates are part and parcel of the educational gains apparent among young Hispanics.

4. An estimated 1.06 million black 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled at four-year colleges and universities. Some of the black students were of Hispanic origin. Appendix Table A1 reports that in excess of 1.0 million non-Hispanic black students were enrolled at four-year colleges and universities in 2010, so non-Hispanic black students were likely the largest minority group on four-year campuses. ↩

III. BOOMING HISPANIC ENROLLMENT REFLECTS MORE THAN DEMOGRAPHICS

The record college enrollment level of young Hispanics is in large measure due to the educational strides they have made, not just growth in the underlying population. In October 2010, a record 32% of Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college (up from the previous high of 27.5% in 2009). In October 2010, there were about 5.7 million Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds, and some 1.8 million of them were pursuing college. However, if young Hispanics enrolled in college at the rate they did 25 years ago (17% in 1985), fewer than 1.0 million of them would be pursuing college degrees today.

Hispanic High School Completion

One reason the Hispanic college enrollment rate is at a record level is that more Hispanic youth are college-eligible than ever before. Virtually all college students have finished high school. In effect, to attend college a youth must finish high school (by graduating with a diploma or obtaining a GED or other equivalency). In October 2010, the Hispanic high school completion rate reached its highest level on record at nearly 73%, an increase of almost 3 percentage points from the 70% in October 2009.⁵

Hispanic Enrollment Among the College-Eligible

In addition to strides in college eligibility, Hispanic youth have increased the rate at which those eligible for college (that is, high school completers) enroll in college. In October 2010, a record 44% of young Hispanic high school completers were enrolled in college, up nearly 5 percentage points from the rate in October 2009 (39%).

Growth in the Number of Young Hispanics

Hispanic population growth is also a factor in booming young Hispanic college enrollments. For example, since 2000, the Hispanic 18- to 24-year-old population has grown by nearly 1.6 million, according to the CPS. (The entire non-Hispanic college-age population grew by only 1.5 million since 2000.) Absent educational changes, Hispanic population growth alone would boost Hispanic college enrollment. But the growth rates since 2000 in various young Hispanic groups demonstrate that population growth alone does not account for the growth in Hispanic college enrollment. The Hispanic 18-to 24-year-old population grew 38% since 2000. The number of 18- to 24-year-old Hispanic high school completers grew 68% since 2000. And the size of the young Hispanic college student population has more than doubled since 2000.

5. As Table A5 shows, the Hispanic high school dropout rate was at a record low in October 2010 at 18% among 18- to 24-year-olds. October 2010 marks the first time in the October CPS that the Hispanic high school dropout rate was under 20%. ↩

IV. BOOMING BLACK ENROLLMENT REFLECTS MORE THAN DEMOGRAPHICS

Black college enrollment reached its highest level on record in October 2010. Akin to young Hispanics, record young black college enrollment reflects educational strides as well as population gains. In October 2010, 38% of black 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college. This eclipsed the prior high of 37% recorded in October 2009.

An important factor underlying the black college enrollment increase is that more young blacks are completing high school and thus are eligible to pursue college. In October 2010, 83% of black 18- to 24-year-olds had completed high school. This represents a historical high in young black high school completion.

Black College Enrollment Among the College-Eligible

In October 2010, 46.0% of young black high school completers were enrolled in college. This rate is significantly above the levels prevailing before 2009 when enrollment rates ranged from 40% to 42%, but is lower than the record 46.4% in October 2009.

V. THE CONTEXT FOR RECORD COLLEGE ENROLLMENT

College enrollment continues at record high levels. This chapter points to some direct and indirect factors that likely underlie the growth in college enrollment.

High School Completion

It is well known that the nation’s young adult population is increasingly Hispanic. In October 2010, one-third of 18- to 24-year-olds were either Hispanic or black. These minority groups have below-average high school completion rates. As minorities have become a greater share of young adults, some may reason that average educational attainment would decline as a result. Perhaps, but this has not occurred in regard to high school completion. In October 2010, 85% of all 18- to 24-year-olds had completed high school (via diploma or GED), the highest level ever recorded.

One direct factor bolstering college enrollment is that a greater share of youths than ever in the past 43 years are eligible to pursue college degrees.

The Youth Labor Market

Related to youths’ decisions to both finish high school and enroll in college is labor market opportunity. For some youth, work may be an alternative to schooling. Although the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, employment opportunities continue to be depressed for young adults in many areas of the country. The share of 20- to 24-year-olds who are employed hit bottom at 60.0% in the first quarter of 2010. By the fourth quarter of 2010, it had risen to only 60.3% and hence some young adults may be pursuing college because they cannot find work.

Returns to College in the Labor Market

A possible long-run factor that may be boosting young adults’ propensity to pursue college is the increased value of a college education in the labor market. In the face of rising college tuitions and increased student borrowing, students and their families may be assessing whether pursuing college is worth it (Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends, 2011). And it is true that the nation is producing more college graduates than ever before. Similar to the enrollment trends documented in this report, the share of 25- to 29-year-olds who have completed at least a bachelor’s degree (nearly a third) reached its highest level ever in 2010 (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011a).

In spite of the rising supply of college-educated workers, employers continue to pay the typical young worker with a college degree about 50% more than the typical young worker whose educational attainment was a high school diploma. There was a major run-up in the earnings return to college during the 1980s, and the college premium has stabilized around 50% since the early 1990s. Some analyses even suggest that the earnings return to college has modestly increased since the early 1990s (Goldin and Katz, 2009). So, at least in terms of the typical pay of college graduates versus high school graduates, a college education has not lost its luster.

APPENDIX TABLES

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